Even were
we not as a nation of a peaceable disposition, even had we not a
President blessed with a singularly clear head and able to keep his
temper, we should still stand little chance of going to war. One
eventuality alone might affect us--Japan might attempt some measures of
aggression in the Far East which would interest us as possessors of the
Philippines, but that is practically foreclosed by her official
announcement that she will side with England. The effects of the war
upon the United States will be indirect effects; they will be economic
in character, though far-reaching and significant for every man, woman,
and child in the country.
The economic structure of the United States rests today upon the
assumption of the interdependence of international trade, upon an
international division of labor, where England makes some things,
Germany others, and we still more, all of which are exchanged. In a
sense each country manufactures and produces for the whole world, and in
turn expects the rest of the world to buy its products and to
manufacture and produce things for its consumption. While something of
this sort has always been true in international trade, the process
reached during the nineteenth century an unprecedented development which
actually made countries interdependent, or, if you will, actually
dependent for the necessities of life upon each other's prosperity and
continued activity.
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