The closing of the New York Stock Exchange, the great shipments of
gold and its consequent scarcity in the United States, the closing of
the New England cotton mills, the cessation of export to Europe and of
transatlantic communication with the Continent were instantaneous
effects of a war 3,000 miles away obvious even to the apathetic and the
heedless. With these we have not here to do; such are already past
history. There is, however, a legitimate field for speculation as to the
probable effects on the United States of the continuation of the state
of war in Europe for months or years. The permanent results of a war
naturally cannot be predicted in advance, but in the light of the
history of the past, certain changes and developments in the United
States appear so probable if the war continues as to reach almost the
realm of certainty.
Needless to say, the European war will not involve the United States in
actual hostilities. It is highly improbable that either our army or our
navy will see service. We are too distant from the seat of war; too
entirely devoid of interests the combatants might seriously injure which
a resort to war could remedy; too completely incapable of aiding or
abetting one or the other in arms to cause them to assail us.
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