It is, of course, quite impossible at this
time to know, in any detail, what all the economic results will be. Much
will depend on how long the war lasts, how many people and how much
property are destroyed, what financial devices are resorted to in order
to finance it, and which side is finally victorious.
The most palpable and the most fundamental effects will be a partial
stoppage of earnings in the nations directly concerned, i.e., a
reduction in the "real income," which consists of enjoyable goods. All
the other important results follow from this.
The cost, however reckoned, is sure to be stupendous. Prof. Richet is
quoted as reckoning it at $50,000,000 a day. This is probably more than
half the total income of all the inhabitants of the warring countries.
The highest estimates of the total income of the United Kingdom, France,
and Germany, estimates of Bowley, Laverge, and Buchel, respectively,
total up less than $70,000,000 a day. Russia and Austria are poor
countries per capita, and would scarcely bring the grand total to
$100,000,000 a day. Moreover, the loss of real income to Europe is, I
imagine, in reality much greater than Richet's estimate, chiefly because
he takes little account of the indirect costs, which may well be the
greatest of all.
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